Labour Market Update Q3 - it looks set to be turbulent all year

We’ve reached the end of the third quarter, which puts us firmly now on the downhill stretch to the end of the year! Before we know it, there will be Christmas things in the shops.

Before then, we have the small matter of a General Election to deal with. Recent polls and reports suggest a close race with no party having an obvious advantage so far. That means it’s likely we won’t know who will be in government for the next term until some time after the election results and negotiations around coalitions have taken place. Understandably, that makes it difficult to plan.

Job ads still rising?

Figures from the latest SEEK report – which shows job ad figures for August and application figures for July – show that job ad numbers have risen month-on-month and year-on-year. 

While that looks healthy, those figures have likely been driven in part by seasonal hiring in sectors such as hospitality and tourism and retail.

Our own data shows a slight drop in job listings compared to quarter one and quarter two this year but improvements year-on-year. That’s not surprising in a sector which is less affected by seasonal hiring changes but is constrained by tight budgets. It’s consistent too, perhaps with our recent salary survey findings which showed that only a quarter of respondents were planning to increase headcount in the coming year.

We’re also seeing a good number of volunteer listings on the board – a reminder that many charities and not-for-profits rely heavily on volunteers to help get things done.

Confidence looks better (but not really)

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index for the latest quarter rose to 86.3, up 3.2 points on the June quarter but still among the lowest since the survey began in 2004.

Respondents to the survey showed some optimism for the future, for example, expected job opportunities but pessimism in other areas such as earnings growth, which the survey reports may be the result of people feeling their wages are not keeping pace with the cost of living.

The Household Labour Force survey suggests that job losses have stabilised in recent months, but unemployment remains high due in part to people who have been out of work for a long time. A reasonable proportion of respondents to the Confidence Survey felt it was hard to get a job right now, but confidence in job security among those in work has improved slightly. 

The Consumer Confidence Survey showed similar mixed feelings. The confidence index rose to 89.5, up 9 points on the June quarter. But anything under 100 indicates there are more households feeling pessimistic than optimistic.

The report notes that some of this confidence lift may have been down to easing on household finances due to changes such as a drop in fuel prices. Those prices look to be on the way back up, so the next survey may show different results.

Nevertheless, financial pressures continue to be an issue and the outlook remains glum. The majority of respondents had cut back on discretionary spending such as eating out and purchasing major household items. For for-purpose organisations that rely on donations for some or all of their income, this could be putting extra pressure on budgets, as households cut back on those extra outgoings including charitable giving.

Campaigners say women start working for free in the coming months

The latest gender pay gap figures (for the June quarter) were released by StatsNZ last month. The reported pay gap is 5.3%, roughly unchanged from the previous year which sat at 5.2%.

It’s worth noting that the official pay gap figure is calculated using median pay rates. StatsNZ notes that compared with mean (average) pay, median pay is influenced less by high earners.

Some campaigners use mean pay to calculate the rate and put the gap at 9.6%. Using those figures, they say women start working for free from November 27th.

A new report shows the value of the for-purpose sector

A new report from JBWere and the University of Waikato has revealed the way the for-purpose sector contributes to New Zealand’s economy.

The report called Economic Value of the For-Purpose Sector in Aotearoa, New Zealand found that around 1 in every 13 workers in New Zealand was employed in the for-purpose sector. And, when the value of volunteer labour is included, the sector contributes around $25.8 billion to the country’s GDP – about 5.7%.

It’s worth noting that those figures come from an expanded definition of the sector which includes registered charities and non-profit institutions alongside selected public benefit entities, tertiary institutions, B Corporations, iwi and hapū organisations, social enterprises, charitable businesses, and other purpose-led entities where activity is oriented toward social, cultural, environmental, or collective benefit rather than private profit. This is a wider definition than used in previous studies, but the report’s authors say it better reflects the sector’s makeup and acknowledges that commercial outcomes can work alongside a broader for-purpose mission. At Do Good Jobs, we take a similar approach noting that for-profit organisations can still have for-purpose roles.

The report also noted that while revenue, expenditure and paid employment had grown, the total number of organisations had risen only modestly, suggesting that larger organisations are carrying out a lot of the work.

Changes to leave coming

Changes to the way leave is accrued, taken and paid are now coming, after the Employment Leave Act 2026 was passed into law last month.

Those changes won’t come into force until 2028, but it’s worth noting what they will be and starting to prepare.