As we head towards the end of the year and thoughts turn to turkeys and stuffing or a good old Kiwi BBQ, it’s time to take one last look at what’s happening in the job market and the recruitment sector with our last Labour Market Update of the year. Plus we’ll get out our crystal ball and look ahead to 2025.

It’s been another challenging year with the first full year of the new coalition government, a recession and difficult economic conditions, and an ever-fluctuating job market. For-purpose and impact organisations have been doing it hard with several charities and not-for-profits including Trade Aid stores, StarJam, and Inspiring Stories which ran Festival for the Future shutting their doors during the year.

And the last quarter of the year has reflected some familiar stories from throughout the year.

Jobs ad numbers are up (and down)

It’s been a recurring theme in our market updates this year - job ad numbers are not looking great pointing to significantly reduced recruitment activity. The November figures from SEEK show that ad numbers did increase slightly (1%) in November, up for just the second time this year and boosted mainly by rises in the major centres - Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. Year on year however numbers are still down.

Application numbers are still up year on year reflecting the increased number of jobseekers.

We’re seeing similar patterns at Do Good Jobs with fluctuating job ad numbers month to month. On the other side of the recruitment process, we are seeing good numbers of job seekers signing up for our job board and good views and application numbers for many roles. Mid-level and upwards roles are popular among our jobseeker community in a wide range of areas within the for-purpose sector.

Unemployment is rising

The latest data from Stats NZ shows that unemployment continues to grow. In the September 2024 quarter the unemployment rate was 4.8% and the employment rate 67.8%. The underutilisation rate - a measure which accounts for untapped labour capacity from unemployed and underemployed people along with the potential labour force, was 11.6%.

The unemployment rate has been growing over the past couple of years and figures show that people are also being unemployed for longer. The latest stats show the number of people unemployed for more than a year was up 55% and the number unemployed for six months to a year was up 53%.

Compared with the same period last year, more people reported losing their job due to layoffs, redundancies or business shutdowns reflecting a difficult year for many Kiwi organisations.

Migration is down

Provisional estimates from Stats NZ also show net migration is down, with departures outstripping arrivals. In fact, the number of departures in the year to October 2024 is the highest on record for an annual period. The figures cover any person who was considered a resident that has left NZ but the biggest group leaving was made up of NZ citizens. Many of them have left for Australia where reported wages are higher and the cost of living lower.

Looking ahead - are we going to thrive in 2025?

For a few months now, we’ve been hearing from people in the for-purpose sector and in general about simply riding out the rest of 2024 but with plans to thrive in 2025. So how are things looking as we head towards the new year?

It’s a mixed bag.

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update paints a grimmer picture than hoped

The government released its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update and Budget policy statement this month. And it’s not great reading. The update shows the government’s books will stay in deficit until at least 2029, a change from previous estimates which showed surplus returning in 2028. Expenses are forecast to grow and tax revenue is forecast to be down, however, GDP is expected to start growing in the coming year. Finance Minister Nicole Willis also warned of more cutbacks in the public sector and told ministries not to expect any funding boosts in next year’s Budget. If you want to dive into all the details you can find the Treasury documents here.

The minimum wage will go up but only a little.

The government also announced this month that the minimum wage will rise next year, but only a small amount. It will increase by 35 cents an hour to $23.50 per hour in April 2025. It’s a 1.5% increase compared to the 2% bump that happened this year. The training and starting-out wages will increase to $18.80 per hour. The change has been announced earlier than in previous years which gives organisations more time to prepare for the increase.

But confidence is improving slightly.

The Westpac Consumer Confidence survey for December shows that households across New Zealand are becoming more optimistic. The confidence index rose to 97.5 - the most positive it’s been for several years. An easing of financial pressure seems to be helping and confidence about the economy is improving. While consumers are still being careful about spending - especially on big-ticket items, spending has increased in other areas such as eating out.

Full data for the Business Confidence index was available at the time of writing but confidence there also seems to be improving especially looking to the year ahead.

So what does the crystal ball tell us for next year? 

To be honest, we’d love to know too, but if we’ve learnt nothing else from the last few years, we’ve learnt that predictions can be hard to make and the unpredictable often happens!

But, we are optimistic about 2025 and the for-purpose sector’s ability to thrive. There’s definitely more work that for-purpose organisations can do to make a positive difference for Aotearoa New Zealand and globally and we need the right people to help those organisations do good. 

We’re beginning to see an uptick in job listings, and we’re hearing from some of our colleagues in the recruitment space that they too are seeing some positivity in the market. At Do Good Jobs, we’re continuing to look at how we can best support for-purpose and impact organisations and other organisations that have impact-focused roles to connect with the right people in 2025. Watch this space!

Want to know more about Aotearoa and its people?

Lastly, data from the 2023 Census is now being made available by Stats NZ. If you are interested in knowing more about Aotearoa New Zealand and its people, then there’s a wealth of data in this collection.