Labour Market Update Q2 - More ups and downs
As we hit the halfway mark of the year, it’s time to reflect on another quarter.
At Do Good Jobs, we’ve had a positive quarter - job ad numbers have been healthy compared to the past few years, and we’ve seen a flow of new employers trying out our board. We’ve also seen some great hires with employers finding team members that not only have the skills they need but also match their values.
More widely though, it’s clear things are still tough. In our recent jobseeker survey, several respondents reported having been looking for roles for several months, if not a year at least. And general confidence is still low. That was reflected in our latest LinkedIn poll checking in with general feelings about the year, where “finding it a bit challenging” and struggling” were the most popular responses.
Our Do Good Jobs experience is reflected in the wider markets this quarter.
Job ad numbers are up, but so are applications again
Figures from the most recently available SEEK employment report, which shows data from May (and April from applications), show that overall job ad numbers rose again slightly, month on month, which is now 18 months of growth. Several of the regions outside the main centres showed growth.
The data also showed that job ads referencing AI skills have increased month on month, but only make up just over 3% of total job ads.
The number of applications per job ad rose for the first time since mid-2025 after steadily declining for several months.
A new survey suggests employees are reluctant to move
Findings from employment company Randstad’s latest Employer Brand Research report showed lower numbers of people changing jobs. Just 14% of employees have changed jobs this year, although 23% said they intended to do so.
The report suggests that challenging economic conditions have caused employees to become more risk-averse and look for stability in their employment.
Employees were rating organisations on
Reliable pay and benefits
Transparency and trustworthy communication
Fair and consistent employee practices
Good support such as reasonable workloads, clear expectations, and flexible work arrangements were also considered important to help with work-life balance.
General confidence is down
That pessimism in our own LinkedIn poll is reflected across the country in the latest Wespac-McDermot Miller confidence surveys.
Both the employment and consumer confidence surveys reported drops in the most recent quarter. A reminder that numbers under 100 indicate that more people are pessimistic about the situation than optimistic.
The Consumer Confidence Index fell 14.3 points in the June quarter to 80.4. That’s the lowest level since 2023. Financial pressures were of particular concern, with living costs rocketing and many households reporting they think their economic situation will deteriorate over the next few months. Discretionary spending was down — a change that could have a knock-on effect on the for-purpose sector if that discretionary spending includes donations to charities.
Wellington remains the most pessimistic region, perhaps not surprising given that it has felt the brunt of public sector cutbacks.
The Employment Confidence Index also fell, dropping 12.5 points to 83.1, the lowest it’s ever been since the survey began in 2004.
A net 60% of respondents felt that it’s hard to find a job at the moment. A net 3% of households reported a rise in their earnings over the last year and a net 12% of households expect a lift in their earnings in the year ahead – again the lowest reading in the history of the survey.
The results paint a relatively negative picture, but It’s worth noting that the report's authors highlighted whether the timing of the surveys has played a part.
The March quarter survey took place in the very early stages of the Middle East conflict before any real consequences had been seen. This quarter, the survey was taken in the first two weeks of June when the conflict was still going and the knock-on effects such as petrol price increases were hitting hard. The authors note that since the survey, the ceasefire may lead the way for prices to ease. Given more recent news that the ceasefire doesn’t appear to be holding strongly though, it might take a while longer before we see any change.
Injuries cost New Zealand more than 20 million days away from work in 2025
New data from the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) shows that New Zealand lost $8.7billion in 2025 due to injuries which kept people off work for more than 20 million days. That’s the equivalent of 57,000 people all being absent from work for a year.
The majority of injuries happened in and around the home, but sports injuries and workplace injuries also contributed significant numbers to the overall stats. Falls were a leading cause, and gym and fitness injuries are on the rise.
The report also highlighted some ways employers can help injured employees during recovery periods which include:
Thinking about how duties can be adjusted if someone is injured
Creating a recovery plan that follows medical advice
Staying connected with employees while they are off work
Budget recap
Last but not least, the biggest news in the second quarter is always the Budget. Given that it’s election year, it might have been expected that this year’s Budget would throw in a few big promises designed to swing votes, but instead Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered what she called a “tough love” budget and a “grown-up” budget, focused on trying to balance the books rather than big spend-ups.
There were some big numbers - with investment in long-term areas like health, education and transport - but little that would have cheered the for-purpose sector.
A couple of notable items that might have an effect:
The Government confirmed that the fees-free tertiary education scheme is being scrapped. The money will be redirected towards more trades academy places for secondary school students and help to fund 1000 additional Youth Guarantee places to support school leavers with no or low qualifications into free study through polytechnics and other tertiary providers.
Various welfare support packages were announced, including $45 million to community food support and kids’ breakfasts, $8 million per year ongoing funding for a central hub which distributes food to local community food suppliers, including food banks, $7 million reprioritised in 2026/27 to fund food parcels for food banks and community-based initiatives that support local food security and resilience and $22.4 million over two years to prevent households needing emergency housing, and facilitating sustainable exits that reduce recurring emergency housing need.
$69 million to fund up to 2,250 additional social houses was also included. But that was somewhat overshadowed by changes signalled earlier this week which will see more stringent criteria for getting a social house bought in and an increase in the Income Related Rent payment.
$48million over the next four years to support Māori broadcasting and $10million to support international interest in Māori culture and storytelling and creating opportunities for Māori artists, creatives and businesses.
No money has been allocated for New Zealand’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is despite suggestions that the government will likely need to purchase offshore carbon credits to meet New Zealand’s 2030 target.
The biggest news to come out of the 2026 Budget for the for-purpose sector was changes to the tax rules around donations.
These changes follow a challenging period during which more substantial and potentially damaging changes to tax rules, which included plans to tax the business income of charities, had been debated. Most of these changes were shelved after a consultation period which garnered 900 submissions and provided significant opposition.
Instead Budget 2026 outlined the following changes
Placing a cap on the level of donations which qualify for the donation tax credit. This is currently unlimited and will be restricted to $100,000 (an effective tax credit of $33,333).
Making it easier to claim donation tax credits by allowing these to be claimed throughout the year rather than waiting until year-end.
Allowing donors to gift their tax credit to the charity
Making it easier for not-for-profits to tax payments made to volunteers
Increasing the level of net income a not-for-profit can earn before needing to pay tax from $1000 to $10,000
The removal of the tax exemption for non-resident charities
Introducing integrity measures for trust income allocations to tax-exempt beneficiaries
Ensuring the member subscriptions for not-for-profits remain non-taxable (consistent with current practice, but in contrast to a recent Inland Revenue interpretation of the existing law)
While some of these are positive, such as increasing the net income for not-for-profits before tax kicks in, the changes to donation tax credits have been widely criticised by those in the funding and charity space.
Philanthropy New Zealand acting chief executive Robyn Scott said some donors had already indicated that they would be giving less from now on, while Community Foundations of Aotearoa’s CEO Eleanor Cater said it was the wrong signal for New Zealand to be sending.
As we head towards the second half of the year, we move closer to election time. It will be interesting to see what policies each party puts forward and how they might impact those working in, and reliant on the work of, for-purpose organisations. With announcements starting to be made, we’ll likely have more on that in our third quarter update at the end of September.