Labour Market Update Q1 - Are we in for another turbulent year?
We’ve reached the end of the first quarter of 2026 - those three months seem to have flown by.
At the start of the year, optimism was high that 2026 may be the year of improved fortunes, with the economy showing signs of recovery and confidence building. When we surveyed our LinkedIn audience in early January, 44% were optimistic about the year ahead.
Since then, events, particularly those globally such as the current Middle East military operations, have taken a toll on confidence (and fuel prices). Surveyed this month, our LinkedIn audience was less cheerful, with 47% saying they feel worse now than at the start of the year. There are mixed reactions, though: 38% say they felt about the same level of optimism or pessimism, and 15% say they felt better than at the start, though they may have just started the year really pessimistic!
Job listings are up
The economy may still be volatile, but there does seem to be increasing buoyancy in the job market.
The latest data from SEEK shows job ad numbers increased month on month and are up 12% year on year, which is in contrast to the declines we saw in recent years. This seems to be continuing the trend that started late last year for increasing vacancy numbers.
A report from recruitment agency people2people also found that the majority of employers (84%) were planning to recruit in 2026, with 37% recruiting to replace staff and 19% recruiting for new growth.
This increase is reflected in our own listings. We saw more than 100 new employer profiles created during the quarter and more than 200 job listings added to the board. While some of these were replacing outgoing staff, a number were for newly created positions, showing the for-purpose sector is still looking to grow despite challenging times.
We also saw around 150 volunteer listings over the quarter, which is a testament to the important work volunteers do to help keep our charities and not-for-profits running. Do Good Jobs offers volunteer listings for free as part of our efforts to make recruiting for these important roles cost-effective, especially for smaller organisations that rely heavily on volunteers.
Application numbers are down in the stats, but job seekers are still finding things tough
The SEEK data suggests that the number of applications per role is continuing to drop - down 2.4% month on month.
But with the unemployment rate still high at 5.4%, several news reports and anecdotal evidence on online communities and social media suggest job seekers are still doing it tough.
A recent piece from Paddy Gower reported job seekers out of work for months or even years, putting in hundreds of applications and getting nowhere. Reports elsewhere highlighted the issues of the “invisible unemployed” - those who have lost jobs but whose family situation (for example, their partner’s wage) puts them over the threshold for receiving benefits.
More women in the workforce
Figures from Stats NZ for the labour force participation rate for the December quarter (the most up-to-date figures currently available), showed the rate was 70.5%.
The labour force increased over the quarter, and compared to the previous quarter, while the number of men in the workforce remained steady, the number of women increased. The figures also showed an increase in the number of women employed as managers (up 9.7%) and as professionals (up 5%). The number of women in clerical and admin roles declined by 9.3% over the same period.
Managers and professionals (which includes teachers, nurses, engineers and marketing professionals, for example) are now the most common occupation groups for both men and women, making up approximately half the employed population.
Confidence overall is mixed
The Wespac Dermott Miller confidence surveys show mixed reactions among businesses and consumers.
Employment confidence was up by 1.8 points to 95.6 in the quarter - the highest since early 2024. More households were optimistic about current job availability than in previous surveys, but caution remained about earning prospects and job security
Conversely, the Consumer Confidence Index was down slightly to 94.7 (down 1.8 points). Reports had suggested that households were becoming more confident about their financial position, but nerves are growing again about the economic outlook. There had also been a pick-up in the number of people thinking about large purchases and spending on discretionary items such as entertainment, but this may drop with the cost of living in the spotlight again, thanks to rising food and fuel prices.
It’s worth noting that both of these surveys were taken in early March in the early days of the most recent Middle East conflict and before any knock-on effects became clear.
State of the Nation report shows work to do
The Salvation Army’s latest State of the Nation report, released in February, showed that while improvements had happened in some areas, such as a reduction in crime figures, other areas, such as child poverty, the need to access support for food and family violence levels, had worsened.
These issues will likely come as no surprise to many in the for-purpose sector, especially those organisations working on the frontline and seeing more families in hardship requesting support.
You can read the full report here.
Looking ahead to quarter two, we await the 2026 Budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has already indicated that the Budget is likely to be a tight one, with savings again prioritised and funding available only for core public services.